Disaster Report: Cyclone Giovanna Is Predicted To Grow To A CAT III, With Winds Between 178 To 210km/h. Landfall In Madagascar on February 13. Residents Of Madagascar Need To Prepare For Heavy Rainfall And Flooding
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The tracking map above clearly shows the position of Tropical Cyclone "Giovanna" . It is currently moving towards land (Antananarivo) with significant wave height 26 feet. It will make landfall (flooding + heavy rainfall) on February 13. In two days (Feb. 13 + Feb. 14) the impact can be great as forecasters says. So people in Madagascar should prepare for it. It will enter Madagascar late night (Feb. 13) and impacts will be seen on February 14 where it will last for whole day and will leave Madagascar late 14th February
After February 14, the cyclone impact will be less, just as a "Tropical storm" which will then passes to Mozambique. Mozambique is already hit by Tropical cyclones "Dando" and "Funso" which caused heavy rainfall and flooding taking lives of 40
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UPDATE 2/13
-Giovanna though being Class 3 cyclone, didn't cause any major damage as forecasters earlier predicted BUT currently Giovanna is heading towards Toamasina, Madagascar where it is predicted to cause worst effect.
-This much updates from Mauritius on this page, now tracking Giovanna as it reach Madagascar in another page. Many Many thanks to local from Madagascar who help in preparing this "Real Update Report" as it was in Mauritius. Hope same help will be from Madagascar side too. BYE BYE MAURITIUS :)
Click to track real update of Giovanna in Madagascar
UPDATE
-Maurice is now no longer hurricane alert
-Around 1:30 p.m, the Mauritian weather service issued its 12th and last cyclone bulletin announcing the lifting of all cyclone warnings concerning Mauritius. Mauritius battered for 20 hours under a cyclone warning class 3 with NO MAJOR DAMAGE
-It was beneficial in terms of rainfall.The region of Mare aux Vacoas was the wettest with 68.4 mm of rain
-All the schools will be opened from tomorrow
-However, the weather remains unstable. Strong gusts are expected in later this afternoon, nearly 100 km/h
UPDATE 09:08 UTC
-It is currently raining in various part of Mauritius (intensity small). NO NEED TO WORRY atleast for some hours
-Following local from Mauritius, "Some rain and wind, but nothing serious. Think the cyclone is passing as we speak" (look comment section)
UPDATE 05:27 UTC
- Following a local resident near the center of the island, "It is very calm, almost like no cyclone in Mauritius"
-Not even a tree fell down. Electricity, phone, water supply and internet connection all intact
-Updates St Antoine, North of Mauritius: Gusts of wind, overcast skies but no rain. Power cut earlier but back again. Fairly windy throughout the night but NO RAIN
-The cyclone is now moving at 08 km/hr in a west South westerly direction. On this trajectory, the center of Giovanna is expected to pass at about 250 km to the north of mauritius by Midday
UPDATE February 12
-As kaboom reports "Disaster Report" through Contact form, "It is 4.50 am (0.50 GMT). Here in Pereybere, in the north of Mauritius, almost no rain/ strong winds. Seems a bit weird, when the cyclone is not that far and is moving at a very slow pace"
UPDATE 22:30 UTC
-No further damage report obtained. One fatalities reported so far. After leaving Mauritius, crossing Indian ocean, Giovanna will enter Madagascar. The strength is forecasted to weaken after passing from Mozambique channel to Mozambique. Since, it is just computer tracking route/forecast who knows impact may be seen in Mozambique too. It will be more clear after it leaves Mauritius (comparing data and evaluating forecast/analysis)
UPDATE
-Getting floods of Real time updates from Mauritius through Contact form. Thanks to everyone for that. As this cyclone is forecasted to hit Madagascar seriously late February 13, another page is created to gives lives updates/real time after it enters Madagascar. If you are one from Madagascar, kindly update in that very page. Click for the page "Giovanna in Madagascar"
-As George express his view through Contact form from Port Louis, Mauritius, "This particular cyclone reminds me of Hollanda in 1994, same trajectory and became still during the evening while intensifying,changed route and passed over Mauritius creating havoc and disaster all over the island.
Our country reservoir has water for 28 days only,water problem is serious.We have no other option than to welcome the cyclone as we need water desperately. Water is only situated near the center, no heavy rain till now over the island.
UPDATE 19:11 UTC
Ritesh hassamal, who is continuously reporting "Disaster Report" from Mauritius just send mail mentioning, "Giovanna has remained stationary at 325km to the North North East over the last few hours, indicating a possible change in direction.
We remain under a class 3 warning.If it changes to a more southern direction we will pass on to the highest warning class 4.
Gusts of above 70 km per hour have been recorded at trou aux cerfs on the central plateau of the island.
Quatre Bornes still rainy and wind gusts are more and more frequent.
Sadly, Giovanna has made one victim already. 25yrs old motorcyclist met with an accident due to severe weather conditions and passed away.
UPDATE
-One fatality reported so far
UPDATE 19:05 UTC
-It seems that currently Cyclone "Giovanna" has slowed down! Still NO RAINFALL in Riviere Du Rempart, Moka and Point Flacq region BUT wind continues. As it still falls under warning class 3, one should be aware, the situation can change at any time
-In most region, weather is Calm with a few little gusts of wind. The situation is same in Black River On West as Danielle reports
UPDATE
Weather conditions currently on Mauritius
Wind: South East, calm gusting to 30km/h
Temp: 28 Degrees Celsius
Rain: 25mm
UPDATE 18:26 UTC
-As Murray Blore reported "Disaster Report" through Contact form from Calodyne, Mauritius few minutes ago, "Quite breezy, but not even storm strength right now. Its quite wierd that there's only been a little bit of rain today, just constant wind. From what I hear, between midnight and 4AM (4AM - 8AM UTC)tonight is going to be the worst for Mauritius, but I don't think its going to be a disaster zone. At my house all the outside furniture has moved indoors, hatches are battened down, and I hope the electricity doesn't go off, because it is seriously hot right now"
-As ash reported "Disaster Report" through Contact form some three hours ago from Rose Belle, Mauritius, "According to the latest bulletin, Giovanna has slow down to 10km/h..it has kept the same intensity and is expected to be at its nearest point tomorrow midday at 330 km in the north of Mauritius..Althought we are in alert 3, in Quatre Bornes the weather stays calm with no cyclonic conditions..and the conditions have remained unchanged for the last 3 hours..
UPDATE 14:57 UTC
-Mauritius airport officially closed as of 7 pm this evening
-As Ritesh reports "Disaster Report" through Contact form from Quatre Bornes, Mauritius Island, "we have now passed to CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 on the island.
the weather is rainy, but not much wind at the moment. All offices, businesses have been closed down, and everyone must be at home when we are on class 3.
Roads are almost desert! (most insurance will not cover damage to cars in CLASS 3). we are all prepared for the violent weather to come
-Condition at Moka and q-bornes: Heavy rainfall
UPDATE 14:52 UTC
-Slight downpour in Northern Mauritius
-Low gust wind (see comment section below)
UPDATE 14:08 UTC
-Most incoming flights cancelled in Mauritius
-A few departures cancelled as well, with some still open.
-The weather is cloudy, rainy with wind, but nothing mad yet (look comment section below)
UPDATE 13:50 UTC
-As Estrella reports "Disaster Report" through Contact form Point Flacq Mauritius, "Currently sky is with grey clouds, it rains a bit from time to time, a little windy, ocean is 10 m closer than usually"
UPDATE 13:31 UTC
- Mauritius Airport still open, some flights delayed BUT no flight cancelled so far
-NW of Mauritius cloudy. Rainfall will pour in some hour
-As rioux sabine reports from Mauritius, "I am living in the north of mauritius, in grand gaube. 17h30 mauritian time it is very windy, rain is falling in showers, gusts are breaking branches of trees. cyclonic weather conditions. compared to cyclone dina it is not a big thing but should not be underestimated as the cyclone is not here until now. we have warning class II but i guess later on it will become class III as weather is worsening and gusts increasing"
UPDATE 10:49
Getting lot of mails and comments. One of the visitor has just mentioned the current scenario of Mauritius from Mauritius Airport as ,"Weather is rainy and a bit windy, but not storm strength.The cyclone has not yet passed Mauritius and Reunion.It is on a course to pass by the island of Mauritius appr. 275-300 kilometers north of the island.
Flights are delayed but not cancelled"
we request anyone who can help us in preparing detail in-depth report. Kindly if anyone can send updates through Contact form. Real updates are far better. Better if you can keep your detail too. It will be easy to publish your name and location. Thanks for all those comments -Admin
UPDATE 9:05 UTC
-Another question is where is the cyclone "Giovanna" situated right now? At the time of updating, it is currently active in Indian Ocean. By late today, it will enter Mauritius (category 4). The strong tropical cyclone will be at 200 km of Mauritius if it continues in this trajectory.
From 12 to late 13th February it will again enter Indian Ocean and by late 13th, it will enter Madagascar. It's effect can be seen in Marovoay, Madirovalo, Toamasina, Ambatondrazaka, Saka, Antananarivo, Antanifosty, Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa, Manakara, Farafagana, Benzaha, Toliara region. It will cause effect on almost all region but mainly in Central Part.
-One of our visitor has posted in Comment section as "I am curently on the south east coast of the island, very near Blue bay, Off and on light rain, wind picking up, humid and hot. Sky seems brighter. On the safe side we are prepared for power cuts. will keep you posted. Not too sure what to expect. Generator ready to go if needed. My husband is in Mada now, sunny skies no wind, he is in Tamatave, also will keep you posted... though i told him to get out of there ASAP, this is not so easy :)))"
UPDATE February 11
Giovanna is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 185 km/h (114 mph).
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Giovanna's strength (category 3)at landfall includes:
- Storm surge generally 2.7-3.7 metres (9-12 feet) above normal.
- Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtain wall failures.
- Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down.
- Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
- Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the storm.
- Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.
- Terrain continuously lower than 1.5 meters (5 feet) above mean sea level may be flooded inland 13 km (8 miles) or more.
- Evacuation of low-lying residences within several blocks of the shoreline may be required.
UPDATE
The storm will reach 135 knots, equivalent to category V on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane windscale, before making landfall on Madagascar on 13 February at approximately 90 knots. After traversing the island, the storm is expected to redevelop in the Mozambique Channel (get latest updates at Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) website)
JTWC forecasts (February 10, 0900 UTC), ""Due to the favorable environment, Giovanna is forecast to strengthen to a peak of 110 knots (~127 mph/~204 kph) within the next 36 hours." The system is expected to weaken significantly as it tracks across Madagascar; however, re-development is expected in the Mozambique Channel after 120 hours."
February 10; NASA UPDATE
Tropical Storm 12S built up steam and became a cyclone on February 10, 2012 as NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead. Residents of east-central Madagascar should prepare for this cyclone to make landfall by February 13 according to forecasters.
February 09; NASA UPDATE
The twelfth tropical depression formed in the Southern Indian Ocean today and quickly became a tropical storm, dubbed Tropical Storm 12S. NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the storm and captured infrared data that revealed a quickly developing tropical cyclone with powerful thunderstorms around its center of circulation.
Tropical cyclone Giovanna/12S active in Madagascar
-Cyclone Giovanna is predicted to grow to a CAT III, with winds between 178 to 210km/h. Landfall in Madagascar on february 13
-Residents of Madagascar need to prepare for the storm's arrival and expect heavy, flooding rainfall, very rough surf conditions and Cyclone-force winds
Overview
Tropical Storm 12S built up steam and became a cyclone on February 10, 2012 as NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead. Now named Cyclone Giovanna, this storm has reached Category One status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane/Cyclone scale with maximum sustained winds near 65 knots (~75 mph/120.4 kph) on February 10, 2012.
It was located about 480 nautical miles (552 miles/889 km) northeast of La Reunion island, near 15.8 South and 61.2 East. It was moving to the west-southwest near 8 knots (9mph/15 kph).
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