Hurricane Hilary may turn toward Baja

SUMMIT COUNTY — Hurricane Hilary regained strength Monday, redeveloping sustained winds of 135 mph as it continued to move west over warm waters and in a low wind-shear environment. The storm is expected to weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler water, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Whether or not Hilary will curve sharply north and potentially affect Baja is still unclear. Some of the forecast models show the storm making a sharp jog to the northeast Wednesday, on a path that could lead Hilary toward the southern end of the peninsula, but other forecasts suggest the hurricane will once again start heading out into the open waters of the Pacific. Check the NHC forecast discussion for more details.

The hurricane center said the uncertainty toward the end of the five-day forecast period is still quite high, so residents of southern Baja will probably be watching the storm closely the next few days. In any case, Hilary is likely to bring some big surf to Baja and potentially even parts of California.

In the Atlantic, the hurricane center now says that the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia are again showing signs of organization. That area of disturbed weather will bring heavy rain to parts of the northern Leeward Islands in the next few days. Forecasters said there’s a 60 percent chance the system will reform as a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

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NASA's Aqua Satellite Spots Flooding from Tropical Storm Arlene in Mexico

On June 30, 2011, Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall near Cabo Rojo in Veracruz, Mexico. As the storm came ashore, the U.S. National Weather Service forecast total rainfall accumulations up to 8 inches (20 centimeters), and warned of potentially life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

The impact of Arlene’s heavy rain was clear in early July as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead. MODIS captured an image on July 5, 2011 after Arlene had passed through.

The image was created using a combination of visible and infrared light to increase contrast between water and land. In the image, water varies from electric blue to navy. Depending on land cover, areas above water range in color from green to brown. Clouds are pale to medium blue-green.

A network of lakes extends inland from the city of Tampico. In the image from July 5, the lake network appears to have multiplied, with standing water covering large areas northwest and southwest of the city. Standing water is also apparent south of Cabo Rojo.

On July 5, 2011, the Associated Press reported that the Mexican government had raised the official death toll for Arlene to 22. Deaths occurred in multiple states, with the most deaths reported in Hidalgo.

Arlene was the first named Atlantic storm of the season.

System 95B-Northern Indian Ocean updates

The ragged low pressure area currently sits several hundred miles from Sri Lanka. The system appears to have fallen apart on infrared satellite imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite today.

On May 2 at 0654 UTC, NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the low pressure area called System 95B in the Northern Indian Ocean. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that flies aboard Aqua, captured an infrared image of the low that showed a disorganized storm. Estimated sustained winds have dropped to 15 knots and the estimated minimum central pressure in the low is near 1010 millibars.

Tropical Storm Errol-Southern Indian Ocean

The low pressure area formerly known as System 92S has strengthened overnight and developed into Tropical Storm Errol today, April 15. Infrared imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite showed strong thunderstorms near Errol's center, but they remained off-shore from Western Australia's northern coast.

An infrared image on April 14 at 0517 UTC from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument shows that Tropical Storm Errol's strongest thunderstorms with the coldest, highest cloud tops were off-shore from the northern coast of Western Australia. Those thunderstorms had cloud-top temperatures as cold as or colder than -63 F/-52C and brought heavy rainfall. Multispectral satellite imagery also showed a well-defined center of circulation in Errol, and bands of thunderstorms wrapping around its souther and western edges.

Tropical Storm Errol has sustained winds of 40 knots with higher gusts, and is kicking up rough surf along the northern coast of Western Australia today. Errol's center was about 270 miles (434 km) west of Darwin, Australia near 13.1 South latitude and 126.3 East longitude. Errol is currently drifting south-southwestward at 2 knots (2 mph/~4 km) but is expected to start moving to the west-northwest as a result of a strengthening ridge of high pressure building up over Western Australia.

System 92S-Southern Indian Ocean

Visible imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite showed strong convection around the center of developing tropical low 92S that lies north of the Western Australia coastline. System 92S is still in the Timor Sea today. Early this morning (EDT), April 14, it was about 315 miles west of Darwin, Australia. The southern extent of the low pressure area's clouds, however, already stretch over land in Western Australia. The center of System 92S' circulation at 06:30 UTC was near 13.0 South latitude and 125.5 East longitude. The system appears to be consolidating and there is strong convection near the center of circulation. By 8 p.m. WST Australia local time System 92S' center was near 12.5S and 126.3E. That is 127 miles north of Kalumburu. Although it moved from this morning, System 92S is now nearly stationary.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Strong Wind Warning from Kuri Bay to Wyndham for the next 24 to 36 hours. That warning area can expect east-southeasterly wind between 20 and 30 knots with higher gusts and squalls. Seas are expected to be 6 to 10 feet. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of System 92S on 0519 UTC on April 13. In the imagery there was area near the center that appears to have texture and shadows. That area is one of higher, more powerful thunderstorms, and is still over open waters of the Timor Sea.

Tropical Depression 91S-South Pacific

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite spotted light to moderate rainfall in the system as continues tracking southwest and bringing rains and winds to the northern coast of Western Australia this weekend. System 91S was located in the Timor Sea, west-southwest of Darwin, Australia and was moving in a west-southwesterly direction. System 91S is forecast to continue traveling in that direction and its center is expected to remain at sea over the next several days as it heads toward the Southern Indian Ocean.

As it continues to track along coastal areas of the Northern Territory and Western Australia, cyclone warnings are in effect. A Cyclone Warning is in effect for Western Australian coastal and island areas from Kuri Bay to the Western Australia/Northern Territory border, including Kalumburu and Wyndham. In addition, a cyclone watch is in effect from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque, not including Derby. The TRMM satellite, operated by both NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, passed over the system at 1451 UTC on April 1. The U.S. Navy and Naval Research Laboratory's Monterey Marine Meteorology Division, Calif. overlaid TRMM rainfall rate imagery on top of Japan's METSAT-2 infrared imagery to provide a complete picture of the low pressure areas cloud extent and rainfall rates. TRMM's precipitation radar instrument measured rainfall rates close to 1 inch (25 mm) per hour.

NASA Satellites Eyeing 4 Tropical Systems Around the World For Possible Development

NASA satellites are all keeping an eye on for possible development. They are Systems 90S, 91S and 99S in the Southern Pacific, and System 93B in the Northern Indian Ocean. Despite a poor chance for development in all of them, one has triggered warnings in northern Australia because of its proximity to land. NASA and the Japanese Space Agency manage the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite and TRMM passed over two of those four systems today. TRMM captured light to moderate rainfall in the low pressure area called “System 90S” on March 30 at 01:49 UTC. Rainfall rates were between 5 and 20 millimeters (0.2 and 0.8 inches) per hour within the storm. System 90S is located 500 miles north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia, near 12.0 South latitude and 116.0 East longitude.

Infrared satellite imagery from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite revealed that the low has consolidated during the morning hours, while the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-E instrument showed deep convection on the north and south sides of the center of circulation. Despite these developments atmospheric dynamics are not currently favorable, so the Joint Typhoon Warning Center currently gives this low a poor chance for development. The second tropical low pressure area NASA satellites are watching is also 500 miles away from land, and that’s System 99S. System 99S is 500 miles north of the Cocos Islands today, near 9.8 South and 99.4 East. The TRMM satellite measured rainfall rates between 5 and 20 millimeters (0.2 and 0.8 inches) per hour within the System 99S early today. The AIRS infrared imagery captured from NASA’s Aqua satellite shows that areas of deep convection exist on all sides of the low pressure center, but it’s not uniform. Vertical wind shear is currently light and sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support development, however, the chance that it will develop into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours is poor. As the week progresses, perhaps the chance will improve with the environmental conditions.

The third tropical low pressure area isn’t a tropical storm but it has triggered a watch for Australia’s Northern Territories. Because of System 91S’ location, about 200 miles northeast of Darwin, Australia (near 10.0 South and 133.1 East), a tropical cyclone Watch has been issued for the coastal communities between Cape Hotham, Port Keats, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands. The Tiwi Islands include Melville and Bathurst Islands and are part of Australia’s Northern Territory, 25 miles (40 km) north of Darwin where the Arafura Sea joins the Timor Sea. In addition, a Strong Wind Warning has been issued from Milingimbi to Troughton Island.

Tropical Cyclone Cherono

Tropical Cyclone Cherono and saw some heavy rain still existing in the storm as it dissipates.

The TRMM satellite passed directly above the remnants of tropical cyclone Cherono in the South Indian Ocean on March 22, 2011 at 0225 UTC (March 21 at 10:25 p.m. EDT). TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) showed that Cherono, although weakened, still had some life and was producing very heavy rainfall of over 50 mm/hr (~2 inches) south-southeast of Reunion Island.

The image of Cherono's rainfall was created by Hal Pierce of the TRMM team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. Rain rates in the center of the image swath are from the TRMM PR, the only spaceborne radar of its kind, while those in the outer portion are from the TMI. The rain rates are overlaid on infrared (IR) data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS).

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System 98S (Southern Indian Ocean)

System 98S has been battered with wind shear over the last couple of days and is still holding together as a tropical depression. Infrared satellite imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite revealed an area of strong convection and thunderstorms around the low pressure area's center yesterday, indicating that the low is maintaining strength even in adverse conditions.

On March 16, System 98S was located about 615 nautical miles southeast of Diego Garcia, near 14.2 South latitude and 80.3 East longitude in the Southern Indian Ocean. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite has been capturing imagery of the low pressure area and today showed that the low level circulation center east of the main area of convection is partially exposed to outside winds.

AIRS infrared imagery also showed that convection had begun flaring or increasing on the western side of the circulation center during the morning hours, indicating strengthening. Flaring convection means the creation of more towering thunderstorms. Thunderstorms power a tropical cyclone. There was also an indication in microwave satellite imagery that thunderstorms were wrapping around the low level center.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos Now Affecting Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Carlos continues to live and has moved into the Southern Indian Ocean, and is affecting Western Australia.

cyclone Carlos on February 22 at 1850 UTC (1:50 p.m. EST) as the storm's center was battering coastal Australia. TRMM's rainfall data shows that most of the rainfall with Carlos was located off shore but some bands of moderate rainfall were affecting coastal Australia.

Tropical storm force wind speeds on the Saffir Simpson scale estimated to be over 50 kts (~58 mph). Carlos has been predicted to batter the Australian coast as it continues traveling southwestward. It is expected to intensify to minimal hurricane force with wind speeds of 65 kts (~75 mph) on February 24 after moving into the open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Cyclone Dianne Currently Staying Away from Australia

When NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Tropical Cyclone Dianne on Feb. 18 at 06:47 UTC (2:47 p.m. Australia/Perth local time/1:47 a.m. EST) it provided information to forecasters that showed Dianne moving farther west than previously forecast. That movement is keeping the storm farther away from Western Australia and that's good news because Dianne strengthened.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on the Aqua satellite showed a larger area of strong thunderstorms around Dianne's center today, Feb. 18, compared to yesterday. The greatest area of deep convection (rapidly rising air that forms the thunderstorms that power the tropical cyclone) are over the northern semi-circle of the storm.

AIRS infrared data takes temperatures of cloud tops and sea surface temperatures and noticed the stark contrast between the two indicating that the thunderstorm cloud tops were very high, very cold (-52C/-63F) and very strong. Meanwhile, the sea surface temperatures were very warm (warmer than 80F/26.5C) and adding power to Dianne.

Tropical Storm Vania South Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm Vania on January 12 at 1246 UTC (7:46 a.m. EST). TRMM noticed that some of the thunderstorms reached more than 9 miles (~15 kilometers) high, indicating strong uplift and a heavy rainmakers. TRMM also noticed that the heaviest rains were falling in the northeastern quadrant of the storm and indicate rainfall at about 2 inches per hour. Other quadrants of the storm were generating moderate rainfall rates between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. TRMM is managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, JAXA.

TRMM captured the rainfall rates of Tropical Storm Vania on January 12 at 1246 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The heaviest rains were falling in the northeastern quadrant of the storm (Red) and indicate rainfall at about 2 inches per hour.

System 93P

System 93P, which is also designated in the Fiji Islands as “03F” for third tropical disturbance formed in the South Pacific Ocean. On Monday, January 10, 2011 at 0600 UTC (1 a.m. EST), it was located about 115 miles east-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu near 16.9 South and 170.0 East.

Vanuatu is an island nation located in the South Pacific Ocean about 1,090 miles (1,750 kilometers) east of northern Australia, and 301 miles (500 kilometers) northeast of New Caledonia and west of Fiji.

The infrared image provided an appearances of circular motion, but didn’t show a well-organized storm. Areas that are brighter white are areas of stronger convection

Tropical Storm Tasha

Cyclone Tasha recently made landfall just south of Cairns along the northeast coast of Queensland, Australia during the early morning hours on Christmas Day.

The storm, which had formed just off the coast, came ashore as a Category 1 cyclone (equivalent to a tropical storm on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale) with wind gusts of up to 105 kph (~65 mph) reported just offshore. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (known as TRMM) was launched back in 1997 with the primary purpose of measuring rainfall in the Tropics.

With its unique combination of active radar and passive microwave sensors, TRMM has also served as a valuable platform for monitoring tropical cyclones. TRMM captured an image of Tasha at 15:32 UTC (5:32 am AEST) on the 24th of December 2010 just before it became a Category 1 cyclone. Tasha appears as an area of enhanced rainfall with moderate to localized areas of heavy rain embedded within a broader area of light to moderate rain draped along the coast of northeastern Australia.

Tasha has no eye and little evidence of banding, which indicates that it is not an intense system. In fact, Tasha's winds did little damage and the storm was quickly downgraded from a cyclone by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre; however, heavy rains from the storm and its remnants had a substantial impact on the region by exacerbating flood conditions already in place as a result of prior excessive rainfall across eastern Australia. The result was widespread flooding with many areas cut off.

Tropical Storm Tasha

Tropical Storm Tasha formed quickly in the South Pacific Ocean last weekend and made landfall on the coast of Queensland, Australia on Christmas day (local time). NASA's Terra satellite passed over Tasha after its center made landfall and captured a visible image of the storm revealing some powerful thunderstorms.

On Dec. 24, Tropical Storm Tasha formed quickly and headed for landfall near Cairns, Australia. At 1800 UTC (1 p.m. EST or 4 a.m. on Dec. 25 local time –Brisbane/Australia), Tasha was near 17.1S 146.3E, about 35 nautical miles east-southeast of Cairns with maximum sustained winds near 39 mph. At that time a NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite image showed banding of thunderstorms and the storm was getting more organized.

Powerful Snowmaker Leaving New England

Snows are finally winding down in New England today, Dec. 27, as a powerful low pressure system brought blizzard conditions from northern New Jersey to Maine over Christmas weekend. The GOES-13 satellite captured an image of the low's center off the Massachusetts coast and saw the snowfall left behind.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite called GOES-13 captured the visible image. GOES satellites are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA's GOES Project, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. creates some of the GOES satellite images and animations.

As of 1:30 p.m. EST, all blizzard warnings were canceled as the low has pulled much of its snow and rain away from land areas and into the North Atlantic Ocean. The winds behind the system are now causing more problems for residents along the U.S. East coast.

Tropical Storm Omeka Central Pacific Ocean

The Central Pacific now has unwrapped their first tropical storm since 1997. Tropical Storm Omeka formed in the Central Pacific Ocean near the International Dateline and the GOES-11 satellite captured an image of it today.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite called GOES-11 is stationary over the western U.S. and provides imagery of that half of the country in addition to visible and infrared images of the eastern and central Pacific Oceans. Satellite data was used to create a full-disk image of the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean on Dec. 20 at 1200 UTC (7 a.m. EST) at the NASA GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The image showed Tropical Storm Omeka to the west of a large area of clouds along a frontal boundary in the Pacific. GOES satellites are managed by NOAA.

Tropical Depression 19W Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical depression 19W was the latest of four tropical cyclones to move over Vietnam this season. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite passed directly above TD 19W on December 13, 2010 at 2038 UTC (3:38 p.m. EST) and collected rainfall data. TRMM’s Precipitation Radar (PR) showed that a few powerful thunderstorms embedded within TD 19W were dropping heavy rainfall off Vietnam’s south-eastern coast. The heaviest rainfall was falling at a rate of about 2 inches per hour over the coastal waters of Vietnam. TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA.

Although TD 19W was very small it’s rainfall added to October’s extreme rainfall amounts that contributed to the worst flooding seen in the country of Vietnam for 20 years. Flooding was widespread in the central provinces of Nghe An, Quang Tri, Quang Binh, Thua Thien Hue, and Ha Tinh. Deadly tropical storms Mindulle and Conson hit Vietnam in July and August. Tropical depression 18W in November also added to Vietnam’s extremely high 2010 rainfall totals.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the organization that forecasts tropical cyclones in that area of the world, TD 19W’s remnant s have already moved ashore and are now affecting southern and central Cambodia.

Tropical Storm Abele Becomes More Powerful

NASA's TRMM satellite noticed strong bands of thunderstorms wrapping into Tropical Storm Abele, signaling that it has become more organized and more powerful in the Southern Indian Ocean.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite passed directly above tropical cyclone Abele in a remote area of the South Indian Ocean on December 1 at 0702 UTC (2:02 a.m. EST). This rainfall analysis from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) shows that Abele had become much better organized. Increasingly well defined bands of rainfall spiraling into the center of the storm are an indication that ABLE had intensified.

The TRMM pass over Abele occurred during daylight hours so the rainfall analysis was overlaid on infrared and visible images from TRMM's Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS). TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA.

On Dec. 2 at 0600 UTC (1 a.m. EST), Abele's maximum sustained winds were near 60 knots (69 mph). It was about 610 nautical miles west-southwest of Cocos Islands and moving southeastward at 13 mph. Abele is about to run into cooler waters and increased wind shear and is expected to begin weakening in the next day.

Western Caribbean Low Not Tropical But a Rainmaker in Central America

A low pressure area in the western Caribbean Sea still has a slight chance of developing into a tropical depression as it closes in for a landfall, but that's not stopping it from dropping heavy rainfall in Central America today.

The low is forecast to make landfall on the Belize coast today, November 19, and continues to move westward and further inland. Although the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. still gives the system a ten percent chance of developing into a tropical depression, it continues to drop moderate to heavy rainfall over Belize and Guatemala today.

At 1 a.m. EST today, the center of the low was located near Roatan Island, Honduras near 16.9 North and 85.8 West.

By 7 a.m. EST, the weak low pressure area had disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It was centered over the Gulf of Honduras and was moving westward between 5 and 10 mph. It is expected to move inland later today over Belize and Guatemala.